If you've never taken a moment to think about ice, this is as good a time as any. It's amazing stuff, really. Water ice (the stuff we're concerned with as hockey aficionados) is primarily composed of a single, simple, symmetrical ionized molecule (that would be dihydrogen monoxide, or H2O) but never takes the same form twice. We've all heard that no two snowflakes are identical and, insofar as my Southern California lifestyle allows me to tell, that's true. But even more than that, no two forms of ice will ever be exactly the same. No matter how predictable the formation should be, what it will be is always variable.
And that's only true of some magical, theoretical pure ice. In reality, the ice will almost always have some sort of inclusion. The inclusion will happen, and it will change the shape of the outcome - possibly subtly, possibly not.
It might be tempting to call the inclusion an "impurity," but I don't see it that way. "Impurity" connotes a flaw that detracts some better, "pure" state. It suggests that the ideological version will always be superior to the practical version. That the version on paper is the virtuous one.
But, as they say in the sports world, the game isn't played on paper.
With that, I present my humble prognostications of the Ducks' final pre-season roster moves and opening night lineup.
Forwards
Line 1: Getzlaf-Perry-Ryan
You're not really going to ask me to explain this one, are you?
Line 2: Koivu-Selanne-Lupul
It's going to take some time to gel, and there may be more sensible options as the second wing for the Selanne-Koivu tandem, but Sunday's goal against the Kings (see it here and marvel) shows exactly what this line can do. As such, my money's on it being intact on opening night.
Line 3: Marchant-Brown-Ebbett
Here's where things get complicated. I'd have Petteri Nokelainen in this line and Erik Christensen centering the 4th line if he were at 100%. But he's not, it seems like it's Ryan Carter's eternal destiny to be a healthy scratch, and someone has to step up. By virtue of his still being on the roster as of this writing, it seems like Ebbett has indeed answered the call. If Coach Carlyle's comments have been genuine - if he really is looking to move away from a true checking line and closer to a tertiary scoring line - then Marchant-Brown-Ebbett makes good sense. All three are full of fight (if not necesasrily size), are unlikely to take too many penalties, and can chip in a goal from time to time. In this scenario I'm putting Marchant at center and Ebbett at left wing, but part of the grace of this concept is its interchangeability. It also helps that all three are, in their own way, big character guys. Odds are high that on any given shift, this threesome could be appropriately responsible and engage the (home) crowd. That's always a plus.
Line 4: Nokelainen**-Parros-Artyukhin
It just makes sense at this point. The Nokelainen-Brown-Parros line from last year was a thing of beauty. A well-oiled machine. A (insert positive imagery here). For time being, at least, I see merit in preserving a part of that line. But why, you may ask, is Artyukhin all the way down here? Simple - the bad penalties during the preseason. Coach Carlyle can't be happy about that, but I also can't see him benching the speed and muscle that Artyukhin can bring to the Anaheim system. The solution: stick him on the 4th line so he can grow with a minimal chance to do penalty damage. Ryan Carter remains a good option to center this line as well, but... see above.
Defensemen
There's a lot more pure speculation here. Properly warned ye be, says I.
Pair 1: Niedermeyer-Sbisa
Hey, I calls 'em like I sees 'em. Sbisa has been very solid (if obviously young) in his brief time as a Duck. I see no reason not to give him the Beauchemin treatment and start him at Niedermeyer's side. If it doesn't work out, Sbisa can be moved. If it does work out, we could be looking at another franchise player and engaging young star. It's the right call - at least for opening night.
Pair 2: Boynton-Whitney
Nick Boynton as a crease-clearing quasi-Pronger, Whitney and his slap shot at the other end of the ice. I'm a little concerned with Boynton's speed, but his size (at 6'1" and 218 lbs he's our biggest D-man) and experience will hopefully cover that deficiency.
Pair 3: Wisniewski-Mikkelson
The Steve Eminger I've been watching for these past few weeks just isn't quite up to par. I think he'll be on the roster as a #7 (i.e. as Carter's scratch buddy). Brendan Mikkelson (who kills in NHL 10, by the way) seems like the safer option. Also, he's been getting a very long look from the coaching staff, including his stint at forward in San Jose. Putting Wisniewski on the "bottom" pairing stings me a little since I'm a fan of any man who will take a puck to the chest, suffer a lung contusion, and still want to be in the lineup the next night. Conversely, I suspect that the defensive pairings will be more fungible this year than last year, and Pronger won't be gobbling up half of any given game, so the minutes will be much more evenly distributed. If there's one point that I'm pre-emptively assuming myself to be wrong about, it's this pairing. Wisniewski could just as easily fill Sbisa's spot on the #1 pair and Boynton's spot on the #2 pair for the exact reasons already given - he could use the Captain's babysitting (it's not that he plays young, and more that... well... who wouldn't benefit from that?) and he can clear the crease. With his chest.
Goalies
#1 - Giguere
#2 - Hiller
There it is, folks. I have called it, it is published, and you may mock me after Saturday's game. I won't say that Giguere has outplayed Hiller so far this year - even if I could definitively make that case based on what I saw, too much has gone on that I haven't seen - but I will say that he's the big-hearted option.
Having said that, Hiller was a Shark-killer in April and we're talking about opening night here, so I will be approximately 0% surprised if Hiller gets the first nod.
Hooray for backing down from your own convictions!
Saturday can't get here soon enough. There will have to be a few roster moves between now and then (including Logan MacMillan's inevitable shift back down to the minors and maybe, just maybe, placing either Eminger* or Boynton on waivers to alleviate the blueline glut) so we might not have to wait until the puck drops to see what the lineups will be. And until then, we're really just trying to draw the snowflake before it forms, aren't we?
Until next time...
-The Raving Duck
*Hey, Steve. I'm sorry for ragging on you, man. You're probably a great guy and I'd happily buy you a beer and talk puck any time you wanted, but I just can't see you fitting into the team I love. Please prove me wrong. Please.
**Edit (7:37 pm): Someone (pretty sure it was Coach Carlyle, but not sure enough to say so outright) just mentioned in the Fan Forum while discussing the lineups that Nokelainen is "injured." I guess that groin strain is a little worse than advertised. That changes my prognostications a little... and is a major bummer.
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